Paperback: 36 pages
Publisher: Idreambooks (April 8, 2016)
Product Dimensions: 5 x 0.1 x 8 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review: 3.4 out of 5 stars See all reviews (18 customer reviews)
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Philip E. Tetlock, a professor at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, has extensively studied the science of forecasting. He has sought to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts. What he has learned in his study is that many professional forecasters and pundits are less accurate than the average person taking a wild guess, but that they are never held accountable for the inaccuracy of their forecasts. He found also that many people use two methods of forecasting; 1) taking an intuitive guess, or 2) using critical thinking to arrive at a forecast, and that the latter is the most accurate. One of the more interesting facts Tetlock discovered in his research is that the traits that make a person a good leader, are not necessarily the traits that lead that person to being a good, or super forecaster. Good leaders, though, know to hire and encourage people who are good at making forecasts.Instaread’s Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review is an excellent summary of the book, and is a worthwhile read on its own. Instaread guides are great for busy reader who want to get an idea about the guts of a book before investing in it. I was also impressed with the cover, a departure from the standard Cliff Notes-like covers of past Instaread books.
This book is NOT about the weather! Discovering that forecasters were not accurate, the GJP (Good Judgment Project) was launched in 2011. What are the traits, skills and conditions that create accurate forecasts for many different events and situations?There are 11 Key Takeways in this Instaread summary. Here are a couple to whet your appetite:>>>#1 - "Professional forecasters do not usually make accurate predictions, and their forecasts are not evaluated in any meaningful way. As with doctors, forecasters' predictions must be measured and judged for accuracy in order for the field of prediction science to advance.">>>#5 - "The GJP was a success. Superforecasters were found by one measure to be 30 percent better than field experts, and many got better over time instead of regressing to the mean."What's the difference between automatic cognition (System 1) and critical thinking (System 2)? Find out in Key Takeaway 2. It has been proved that "superforecasting is a skill, and that the good ones are not just lucky". What is probablistic thinking and why is it a characteristic of superforecasters? What is the "growth mindset"?The text is described "as simplified academic research" making for a "dense read". THEREFORE this Instaread summary (think DETAILED review) is perfect if you just want an overview of what the original is about. It may well save you from reading the 354 page original. Important to note that my review is based on the quality of this Instaread review and not the original book. Summary provided in exchange for an honest review. Thanks, Liz
In our world there are hundreds of pundits, journalists, political analysts, and bloggers making predictions about the future. These predictions vary from what features the next iPhone will have, to the consequences of our political involvement in Iran. But the stage of our media-centric, internet-obsessed life means that everyone feels entitled to their opinion, and the right to share it. With little or no consequences for false predictions, these individuals have nothing to lose from their forecasts. And as consumers we eat it up.This Instaread review of "Superforecasting" explores the culture we live in, where there is so much false information and deceiving forecasting being shared. And through the 11 key takeaways of this review, we're able to see what qualities make superforecasters much better at predicting the future than just haphazardly guessing. I was given a copy of this book to review.
This is an overview of the actual book “Superforecasting.“ Kind of like an abbreviated Cliff's Notes for the full book. It provides a potential reader enough information regarding this book’s content to determine if we want to invest the extra money and time to actually buy and read the entire book. As an avid reader I have personally found professional outlines for current books like this one to be a very helpful and valuable service.
I really like books like this but these days I don't have time anymore to read everything. I can't tell you how many books I have purchased that I never get around to reading.I've taken to buying these Instaread summaries a lot lately, because I just want to know more about a book before I spend the money on a full title. I think this Instaread does a good job of highlighting the key points and I came away with a good understanding of the subject. If you are short of time, and want to get the basics before you buy the book, then I recommend this Instaread summary. It is also a good companion to the book.
If one is new to the area of forecasting there is little to say that more can be gained by reading the book. If one is involved with creating or using forecasts, as proffered, this summary is a quick review of the major thoughts in the arena. Again, given even a rudimentary knowledge of the arena, the ideas are summarized with no indication that reading the full volume will provide a return on treasure, time or money, spent.
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